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Diesel cars seen taking baby steps in Japan |
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TOKYO (Reuters) -- Heightened awareness about global warming has prompted a growing number of automakers to promise diesel cars in Japan, but most in the industry expect growth to occur at snail's pace.Diesel passenger cars have taken off in Europe where they now make up more than half of all new cars sold due to their superior fuel economy and efforts to lower carbon dioxide emissions.But after a powerful smear campaign by Tokyo's popular governor in the 1990s deriding them as smelly, noisy and polluting, diesel cars all but disappeared from roads in Japan, the world's third-largest auto market.Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz is alone in offering a diesel car after Toyota Motor Corp. halted production of the diesel Land Cruiser Prado model in July. Sales of the Mercedes E320 CDI are tiny, at around 170 a month.But over the past year, a number of Japanese carmakers -- traditionally laggards in the diesel arena -- have announced plans to launch clean-diesel cars at home, following a lead from the United States, where diesels are making a gradual comeback.Diesel engines burn fuel more efficiently than their petrol counterpart, thereby producing less carbon dioxide, but emit more polluting nitrogen oxide and particulate matter, or soot.How successfully diesel cars make in-roads in Japan could tweak the competitive picture, but industry executives speaking at the Tokyo Motor Show this week had only guarded optimism for their prospects."Once the public realises how attractive diesel cars are, I think -- and hope -- they could spread very quickly," Takanobu Ito, head of Honda Motor Co.'s automobile division, told Reuters, beaming about the "exhilarating" drive that today's diesels offer with their high torque.But he added he expected diesels to make up only a slight share even in 10 years' time, admitting that if consumers wanted fuel economy, a small petrol car such as its Fit subcompact "would do just fine".Apart from Honda, Nissan Motor Co. and Subaru-maker Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. are also planning to re-introduce diesel cars in Japan. Nissan, Japan's No.3 automaker, will start selling a diesel X-Trail SUV next year.Many European brands are set to follow. Volkswagen AG, Japan's top foreign marque, could have a diesel in Japan as early as 2009."We're pushing headquarters to give us clean diesel cars soon after they're launched in the United States next year," Tsutomu Umeno, head of the German automaker's local unit, told Reuters.TOYOTA STAYS OUTA notable nay-sayer is Toyota, pioneer of gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. With nearly half the domestic car market, Toyota has the leverage to determine whether diesel cars will proliferate, or occupy no more than a niche.Toyota is stepping up its clean-diesel development to compete more effectively in Europe, but shot down the idea for Japan."There's really no reason to bring diesel cars (to Japan)," its R&D chief, Kazuo Okamoto, said. While admitting that diesel cars inherently do better on highways than hybrids, Okamoto said Toyota's future gasoline-electric cars would be just as good -- if not better -- under any driving condition.Until that day, though, diesels have a chance.With Japan's introduction of stricter emissions standards in late 2009, exhaust from diesel cars will be nearly as clean as from their petrol cousins. The government and oil industry are also keen on diesels as a way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and to work down a glut in diesel fuel.Diesel fuel prices are about 15 percent less than petrol at the pump in Japan -- roughly equivalent to the gap in price across Europe.In fact, cheaper fuel isn't even a prerequisite.In Britain and Switzerland, diesel fuel costs more than petrol but powers nearly 40 percent and 30 percent, respectively, of new cars sold there, said Al Bedwell, senior manager of J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting. The shares continue to grow."We are not predicting a diesel boom in Japan, but do expect to see an increasing number there," Bedwell said, adding the diesel would gain mainly in the big, premium and SUV sectors.J.D. Power forecasts the diesel share for Japanese passenger cars to grow to 1.9 percent in 2010 and 7.5 percent in 2015.Front-runner Mercedes-Benz says the pace could be faster.Though volumes are negligible, E320 CDI makes up about 20 percent of Mercedes' E-class sales in Japan, higher than the 13 percent the brand had expected."If you would have asked me two years ago the ideas on diesel in the U.S., we always referred to J.D. Power's forecast of 15 percent in 2015," said Klaus Maier, executive vice president of Mercedes-Benz Cars."You know where we are? 20 percent as of September 2007," he said, referring to the portion powered by diesel in its SUV and E-Class segments, on offer in the United States."I would assume that (the spread) would be much faster than anyone had expected in the U.S. market. Why shouldn't it be the same way in Japan?"
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